There is a dangerous decoupling occurring in the Australian property market. Historically, prices and transaction volumes move in tandem. When prices rise, homeowners feel wealthy and upgrade, driving volume.
In 2026, however, the RBA’s decision to hike the cash rate to 3.85% has "stuck" many households. They have the equity to move, but not the serviceability to refinance. This creates a bottleneck where prices stay high due to lack of supply, but deal flow dries up.
Primary Angle: The "Turnover Trap"
Resilient prices ($973k median) mask the real danger: a transaction volume crash. Brokers relying on "transactional acquisition" will starve, while those mining their database for "stuck" clients will thrive.
Market Simulation
The Four Drivers of 2026
Higher Rates
Impact: Reduces serviceability and "willingness to move".
Strategy: Focus on "Refinance for Retention" to buffer the 3.85% rate.
Supply Constraints
Impact: Limits buy-side options, slowing the chain.
Strategy: Target "Rightsizing" opportunities for older, equity-rich clients.
Price Resilience
Impact: Keeps equity high but creates "Mortgage Prisoners".
Strategy: Utilize 1% serviceability exceptions for dollar-for-dollar refinances.
Investor Activity
Impact: Rental vacancies crash to 1.2%.
Strategy: Build "Investment Strategist" branding to attract landlords.
The Strategic Imperative
| The Old Way (Transactional) | The Pivot (Database Mining) |
|---|---|
| Focus on "Clickbait" Lead Gen | Demonstration of Expertise |
| Waiting for "Ready to Buy" | Nurturing the "Stuck" |
| Transactional Volume | Relationship Retention |
12-Month Nurture Blueprint
Months 1-3: Educational Foundation
Deliver monthly value. Send automated content explaining the lending process, rate environments, and equity management. Establish expertise without asking for a sale immediately.
Months 4-6: Relationship Deepening
Conduct personal check-ins or "Annual Reviews" regardless of transaction intent. Focus on understanding their long-term hold strategy.
Months 7-9: Trigger Campaigns
Use specific triggers like First Home Owner Grant changes or tax time. This is actionable "News you can use" that prompts the client to reach out to you.
Months 10-12: Refinance & Referrals
By now, trust is high. Proactively assess serviceability for refinancing. Ask for referrals based on the value provided throughout the year.